By: Muhammad Bilal Iftikhar Khan
Clausewitz provides the most
insightful lens through which to understand the current US and Israeli
aggression against Iran. His famous dictum that "war is a mere
continuation of policy by other means" reminds us that armed conflict is
never an isolated act of violence, but a tool of political intent. Yet,
Clausewitz also understood that war is not merely politics; it is a sensitive
blend of art and science, a "business" where a single miscalculation
can unravel tactics and strategy, ultimately defeating the very purpose for
which the war was begun. History is full with examples of dominant powers
failing to grasp the true dynamics of a conflict. Blinded by their own
confidence, they stumble into Pyrrhic victories, hollow successes that shatter
their long-term aspirations, inflict irreparable damage to their repute, and
critically, destroy their psychological deterrent.
In the post-9/11 order, the threats
to the Zionist settlement of Israel appeared to become increasingly impotent.
The Iraq War, in particular, proved to be a strategic windfall. It fractured
the Arab world along sectarian lines and introduced new tensions between Kurds
and Arabs. This fragmentation gave the Zionist settlement immense leverage,
allowing it to assume the role of a regional balancer. The initial US strategy
seemed excellent, culminating in the Abraham Accords which appeared to isolate
Iran further. However, this very success bred a fatal flaw: the US and its
allies became overconfident and profoundly underestimated their adversary.
Emboldened, the
US and Israel struck with ease, eliminating Iranian military leaders and
scientists they believed were developing nuclear weapons. The extreme sectarian
passions unleashed by the Iraq war seemed to serve their policy objectives
perfectly. But a critical difference in approach emerged. The US and Israel,
possessing overwhelming conventional power, treated every challenge like a nail
to be levelled with a hammer, operating under a doctrine of anticipatory
self-defense. Iran, on the other hand, was acutely aware of its shortcomings.
Decades of sanctions had crippled its economy; despite vast oil reserves, it
was largely prevented from selling them. This imposed limitation, however,
became the mother of strategic invention.
This is where the
US and Israel made their fundamental mistake. They failed to identify the true
"center of gravity", a core Clausewitzian concept. They believed it
was Ayatollah Khamenei or the political leadership, assuming the regime would
collapse if the leadership were decapitated. They forgot that the real center
of gravity was the ideological fusion of Shia faith, Iranian nationalism, and
the philosophy of Shahadat (martyrdom). For Iran's protectors, the ultimate
pride was not in victory alone, but in the sacrifices made by their heroes for
both Islam and Iran. Killing a leader only created a new martyr, fueling the
very ideology they sought to destroy.
Iran, recognizing
its material disadvantages, slowly and consistently pivoted to an asymmetric
strategy. This approach (Decentralized Mosaic Defense" (or Defa-e Mozaik))
successfully addressed its limitations and allowed it to fight a far more
powerful enemy with confidence. A key component was the decentralization of its
forces and its proxy network, a direct counter to the US/Israeli capability to
decapitate its leadership. By distributing power, Iran made its own command
structure more resilient, ensuring that the loss of any single commander would
not paralyze the broader effort.
Today, on the
eighth day of this latest escalation, that strategic resilience is on full
display. Despite heavy bombardment and the loss of more than a thousand people,
Iran is still standing. It is effectively striking both Israel and American
bases throughout the region. Crucially, America's Arab allies, once seemingly
on board with its strategy, are now publicly vowing not to allow their land or
airspace to be used against Iran. This strategic shift is a direct result of
Iran's calculated approach. Reports that the USS Abraham Lincoln has withdrawn
to Indian ocean after being targeted by
Iranian drones, and that US forces are vacating some bases, suggest that
American overconfidence has indeed resulted in a Pyrrhic victory, or at least a
stalemate that favours Iran.
The outcome is a
profound psychological victory. By simply surviving and inflicting costs,
Ayatollah Khamenei has been cast as a hero for many in the Muslim world. The
conflict has inadvertently achieved what diplomats could not for years: a
display of Shia-Sunni unity against a common foe.
War is indeed an
extension of policy, but policies built on overconfidence and conceit lead to
strategic embarrassment. In this clash of wills, it has not been superior
weaponry, but the minds and resilience of the seemingly weaker power that are
achieving dominance. This is the enduring lesson of war, one that dominant
powers with advanced militaries so often forget.
Writer is PhD Scholar in International Relations, with 16
Years Plus experience in current affairs departments of leading Pakistani News
Channels
