Muhammad Bilal Iftikhar Khan
The situation in the Middle East is deteriorating rapidly. Both Iran and the United States have adopted uncompromising positions, rendering a ceasefire nearly impossible. Meanwhile, Israel, the dominant force shaping the conflict, has explicitly ruled out any cessation of hostilities until its policy objectives are achieved.
Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis now stand ready to close Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea. The result is a coordinated chokehold on the world’s most critical maritime arteries.
For Pakistan and South Asia, the coming months will be exceptionally difficult. A looming fuel crisis will hit the poor and middle class hardest, especially at a time when countries across the region are already grappling with persistent inflation and declining living standards.
If the current trajectory holds, we will also witness a surge in maritime threats around our waters. These threats will be both traditional and non-traditional. The latter may include a rise in maritime terrorism, piracy, and smuggling. It is well understood how the Zionist entity has financed disruptions across the Middle East to advance its messianic objectives. Past incidents, such as the USS Liberty attack and the recent missile strike on Diego Garcia, a joint US-UK military base point to hidden hands seeking chaos in order to forge a new order.
The greatest threat Pakistan faces, however, stems from the emerging joint Israeli-Indian nexus in the Arabian Sea and the broader Indian Ocean Region (IOR). At the onset of Operation Epic Fury (February 28, 2026), multiple reports confirmed that Israeli naval assets were repositioned southward to secure the Bab al-Mandab Strait and counter potential Iranian-backed threats in the Red Sea. In effect, Israeli naval forces are now operating in the IOR.
Pakistan’s unique strategic location and ideological foundation have always cast it as the antithesis of the Zionist project. This reality has, in turn, strengthened the Indo-Israeli alignment against Pakistan.
Given the unfolding situation, the responsibilities of the Pakistan Navy have multiplied. It must escort Pakistani-flagged vessels and maintain a vigilant watch over our Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), through which nearly 90 percent of Pakistan’s trade and oil imports transit. This operational burden stretches our naval assets to their limits.
That said, the Pakistan Navy has a distinguished history of taking on a stronger adversary and achieving remarkable results, whether in 1965, when it destroyed the Dwarka radar station, or during the 1971 war, through the legendary exploits of PNS Ghazi and PNS Hangor. Yet the reality remains that quantity has a quality all its own. The Indian Navy is far larger and positions itself as the net security provider in the IOR.
Last year, the Indian Navy failed to contribute meaningfully to Operation Sindhoor, withdrawing its aircraft carrier from the theater before hostilities even began. Today, with Israeli assets now operating alongside Indo-US forces, the Pakistan Navy must remain on high alert. History has shown that when Israel faces adversity, the United States intervenes, even at the cost of its own reputation.
Iran has demonstrated that raw military might can be countered through resolve and the optimal use of available resources, guided by sound strategy. Its decentralized Mosaic Defense doctrine has held firm even after weeks of relentless bombing and American claims that the Iranian Navy has been neutralized. Paradoxically, despite US bravado, more than two American aircraft carriers have withdrawn from the theater, and Washington has failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a significant strategic embarrassment.
The decentralized Mosaic Defense is a powerful concept. In the past, the Mongol hordes employed a similar approach: units were given responsibility and supplied as independent nodes, empowering them to act according to circumstances. Like a mosaic in which many small pieces form a larger picture, this doctrine grants commander’s freedom, confidence, and speed to execute operations contributing to larger picture of countries defense.
In the coming days, the test will not be for the armed forces alone, it will be for the entire Pakistani nation. Leadership must begin preparing the country now. Lessons must be drawn from ongoing conflicts. As fuel shortages loom, Pakistan must prioritize the production of more missiles and affordable drones to support a mosaic-style defense, should the need arise against the Indo-US nexus.