Muhmmad Bilal Iftikhar Khan
18-3-26
History is a wonderful subject. It reveals the mistakes of the past, the
experiences of our predecessors, and the psychology of a nation. From these
come the lessons and experiences that ultimately forge a nation's strategic
culture. According to Dr. Shoaib Pervez, strategic culture is the repository of
a nation's values, historical experiences, and beliefs.
It is commonly said that history repeats itself, though with
variations. Those who forget history are the ones condemned to repeat it.
Power does not merely mean the ability to compel compliance
or create deterrence; that would be a very narrow definition. True power is the
sum of experience, a philosophical mindset, and a wisdom that lies not in
displaying force to gain compliance, but in possessing the psychological edge
to take the right actions under duress and unfavorable conditions. It is the
strength to remain steadfast on the path one has chosen, or within the
paradigms through which one creates reality, even in the face of adversity.
The ongoing dynamic between Iran, the U.S., and Israel is a
powerful example of how historical depth can forge defiance against the world's
only superpower on the ground. The United States, despite its immense material
strength, has found itself unable to secure compliance and is witnessing its
carefully constructed Middle Eastern order crumble under the weight of Iran's
resolve and ideological commitment. As Paul Rogers aptly notes, the U.S.
remains the only country in the world with true global reach, operating
hundreds of military bases worldwide. This infrastructure grants it the
capability to initiate multiple wars simultaneously, equipped with land, sea,
air, space, and cyber assets, a formidable arsenal theoretically capable of
overwhelming any other power, whether China or Russia.
Yet, as the famous Urdu novelist Naseem Hijazi once wrote,
"Power is the biggest weakness of the powerful." He was right,
especially regarding powers that lack historical depth and are built on a
foundation of material values. Such powers tend to default to the display and
use of force as their first option. This mentality is precisely what Robert
Kagan describes in his famous work, “On Paradise and Power”, where he predicts
America's inclination toward preemption and anticipatory self-defense. For the
U.S., everything above the earth that is disliked or not aligned with its
interests is perceived as a nail to be hammered down and leveled.
It is precisely this mentality that led to the overextension
of American power. The greatest victory of the 20th century, the fall of the
USSR and the ushering in of a unipolar era, lasted barely a decade or two
before the victor overextended itself. This overreach inadvertently facilitated
the rise of China and the return of a multipolar world.
Compounding these challenges, the biopolitical approach of
the present U.S. administration has also alienated it from its traditional
Western allies. Interestingly, the Thucydides Trap in which the U.S. has found
itself ensnared for the past decade or so pits it against another ancient
civilization: China. China possesses more than five thousand years of history,
adheres to the moral philosophy of Confucius, and has produced strategic minds
like Sun Tzu.
A telling incident occurred a few months ago when the U.S.
applied abducted Venezuela's president. The primary driver was the
Venezuela-China oil-for-loan agreement. Washington's objective was to control
that oil and ensure it was cut off from flowing to China. Similarly, a
significant reason for the current U.S. pressure on Iran, including plans to
target Kharg Island, is again to interrupt Iranian oil supplies to China, supplies
that continue to flow despite the regional war.
This aggressive and, at times, narcissistic posture has
created strategic weakness for the U.S. On one hand, it seeks to cut China off
from energy resources; on the other, it is currently in a position where it
cannot afford to overtly offend Beijing. Paradoxically, Washington has even
called on China to play a role in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
In stark contrast, China, with its millennia of history
providing immense strategic depth, is following the ancient Taoist principle of
“Wu Wei”, or "effortless action." It is acting in perfect harmony
with the natural flow of developing events. Like a skilled sailor who does not
fight the wind and current but skillfully uses them to reach a destination,
China is acting spontaneously and without force. It resembles a master artist
or athlete whose actions seem effortless and instinctive. China is not
"trying" in a forceful, self-conscious way. It is supporting Iran,
acting as the soul of BRICS, serving as the voice of the Global South, and
playing the role of a peacemaker. It is a graceful giant whose archrival,
paradoxically, depends on it for its own survival.
In many ways, China has already won the global battle for a
new order. The actions of the United States have themselves proven the depth
and grace of the People's Republic of China. But the story does not end here.
China has risen, and we have now reached a point where the U.S. is feeling
increasingly stranded. As time passes, we may see that Washington's next target
is China itself. However, China has the world on its side, the potential to
match any challenger, and the historical depth necessary to prevail.
I dedicate this article to my mentor, Dr. Usman Askari,
whose guidance continually inspires new ideas and intellectual exploration. I
also extend my gratitude to my teachers, Dr. Shoaib Pervez for Security Studies
and Research Methodology, and Dr. Fatima Sajjad for introducing me to Peace and
Conflict Studies and the works of postcolonial thinkers such as Aníbal Quijano
and Walter Mignolo.