Since the early 1990s, the U.S. has been concerned about Pakistan's missile development and potential cooperation with China. However, since the second term of President Obama, U.S. officials have been urging Pakistan to exercise moderation when extending the range of its ballistic missiles beyond India's borders.
The Biden administration has adopted a particularly strong approach, targeting organizations it believes are aiding Pakistan's missile program, imposing six rounds of sanctions over the last four years. The U.S.-Pakistan relationship remains strained by the nuclear issue, and while overall relations between Washington and Islamabad have improved, the U.S. continues to use both carrots and sticks in its dealings with Pakistan, especially through regular sanctions on companies.
Pakistan's missile program has now advanced to a stage where its progress is unlikely to be significantly hampered by such frequent restrictions. The world is undergoing significant changes in terms of global order, and the era of multipolarity has become evident, especially with the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflicts in the Middle East, where the U.S. is facing opposition from the global community in ways it never has before. With the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia, the U.S. finds itself trapped in the Thucydides Trap, grappling with the preservation of Western dominance or what it refers to as the "rules-based order."
The recent summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)—sometimes seen as a regional political, security, and economic alliance—runs contrary to U.S. interests, and coincidentally, the U.S. announcement of sanctions a month before is aligned with the summit in Islamabad.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the U.S. has employed a carrot-and-stick policy with Pakistan, attempting to control Pakistan’s actions according to U.S. preferences. Pakistan's nuclear and missile programs are India-specific, reflecting the limited and full-scale wars Pakistan has fought with India and the bitter experiences it holds. On the other hand, the U.S. has signed four basic agreements of alliance with India, including the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) in 2020, the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016, and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018. The U.S. plans to use India as a counterweight to China, as both India and China have historical border disputes and aspire to dominate the region. India is also an important member of the Quad.
Pakistan has never posed a threat to the U.S. or its Western allies, and it has historically compromised its own security to align with the U.S. and the West, as seen in incidents like the U-2 spy plane episode and the Afghan war against the Soviets. The U.S., however, has used Pakistan when it suited its interests, and now, with India holding more strategic utility for the U.S. and Pakistan being closer to China, sanctions are being imposed on Pakistan. These sanctions will have little effect, as evidenced by the results of previous U.S. sanctions on Pakistan’s nuclear program. On the contrary, Pakistan may be forced to seek other options, moving further away from the U.S. Once again, this is not an era of unipolarity, and the past few years have shown that Third World countries are joining alternative platforms like BRICS at a fast pace to counter what they perceive as neo-colonialism.
In the case of India and Pakistan, Pakistan has consistently demonstrated maturity in securing its nuclear and other strategic assets. In contrast, over the past three to four years, several cases reported by Indian media have revealed uranium or other related materials proliferating in Indian markets. There should not be two different sets of rules, especially in the so-called "rules-based order" that the U.S. refers to as the Western-dominated system.