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Turkey's strategic maneuvers may seem complex, but they're part of a long-term plan to reclaim its historical significance in the global hierarchy. The country is modernizing its military, expanding its naval, air, and land forces, and asserting its influence following the expiration of the Treaty of Lausanne in 2023.
On land, Turkey faces challenges from Kurdish separatists, who receive support from Israel and the US. This dynamic stems from the 1990s Adana Agreement between Syria and Turkey, after which Israel began backing Kurdish militancy. The US has also utilized Kurdish forces in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has launched operations against Kurdish separatists in Iraq and Syria.
In the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey disputes the proposed gas pipeline, with the US and Europe supporting Israel, Cyprus, and Greece. Turkey claims drilling rights in areas considered part of Turkish Cyprus's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), potentially escalating into regional conflict. Turkey also has longstanding disputes with Greece in the Aegean Sea.
Strategically positioned, Turkey controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, the only passage from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. This affects five countries, including Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, and Romania, which relied on free passage under the Treaty of Lausanne.
Beyond its immediate region, Turkey has been quietly expanding its influence. It has fostered strong alliances with Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and other regional players, creating a network of cooperation that enhances its geopolitical clout. Through strategic partnerships and military deployments, Turkey has ensured a silent yet significant presence in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and Caspian Sea, projecting power into vital trade corridors.
Critics accuse Turkey of hypocrisy for allowing Azerbaijani oil to reach Israel. However, this overlooks the complexities on the ground. Turkey's priorities are clear: it refused US/NATO use of its territory in 2003, purchased Russia's S-400 system (costing its F-35 program), acts against Russia in Syria, and supports Hamas and anti-Israel resistance.
For now, Turkey seeks to build strength, not engage in conflict, focusing on its "Mavi Vatan" (Blue Homeland) vision. As tensions simmer, Turkey will likely continue to navigate this delicate balance of power. The stage is set for potential crises between Turkey, Israel, the US, and NATO over Eastern Mediterranean resources and maritime borders. However, Turkey's calculated approach aims to secure its interests and reclaim its influence, paving the way for a resurgence as a major regional power.