Introduction
In the past few
years global order is changing rapidly. After the cold war US came out as a
winner and became the sole superpower of the world with unmatchable economic,
military, and technological strength. It was and is still an unmatchable
military power, only power with global reach and network of military bases
across the continents but economically it is facing serious challenges from
China which is also catching it up in sphere of military and technology. China
is dominating in its soft power projection where as US is losing grounds to
clever Chinese policy of cooperation and trade.
During the era
of unipolarity, US, in pursuit of dominance created situations in which its
competitors benefitted. US over stretched itself resulting in burdening its economy
and national power. The dream of Pax American led to in doctrines like
preemption and anticipatory self-defense, which in turn costed US its repute
and good will in world, especially in Muslim world.
In the name of
War on terrorism gross generalization and stereotyping was used against
Muslims. New rules and laws were introduced in US and in west, resulting in
islamophobia and high handedness against Muslims across the world.
911 attacks on
US were attributed to Al Qaida and all the alleged attackers were Middle
Eastern descent. It was natural for US and western media to create atmosphere
of hate against Arabs, especially Saudis, as Osama bin Ladan and majority of
911 attackers belonged to Kingdom.
After Iraq
invasion, anti-occupation resistance started which soon developed sectarian
color. Iraq invasion also resulted in change of regional order of Middle East.
Kurds leader Jalal Talibani coordinated with US against Saddam regime which
made Kurds no reliable for Sunni Arabs. Kurds also spearheaded US efforts
against Sunni Arab resistant . Turkey refused to give US and its NATO allies to
use its aerospace due to Kurdish role in the invasion. After Saddam removal
Sunni Arabs were victimized, where as Iraqi Shias ,who are in majority but were
marginalized by Saddam Hussain government at first jubilated and helped
invaders.
After second
world war the regional order was that there were Monarchs supported by US and
Arab nationalist aligned with Soviet Union and of course Israel , opposed by
both types of Arab governments .Iraq invasion divided Middle East on Sectarian
and ethnic lines. Sunnis, Shias and Kurds, all having emotional grievances
against each other and Israel now in position to play balancer role between
these 3.
Then came era
of Arab Spring, Arab spring resulted in change of governments in Libya, Morocco
and Egypt. In Syria the revolt has been crushed by Bashar al Asad regime with
the help Russia and Iran. In Bahrain and Jorden revolution failed thanks to GCC
help.
At the time
when US was trying to bring favorable order in Muslim world China slowly and
steadily improved and developed it self and concentrated in projecting its soft
power which resulted in increase of influence across the globe.
The global
financial catastrophe of 2008 had a shocking consequence on the world
economies. Not only had it raised high levels of doubt on the basics and
sustainability of the global financial structure, it had also rubbed out the
delight that came with the strong growth posted by record economies in 2007 and
early 2008.
During this economic slump, China introduced
the largest incentive package in the world in 2008, in the rouse of the global
financial crisis. China was also the first key economy in the world to arise
from the crisis. The Chinese economy recovered and grew by 8.7% in 2009 and by
10.4% in 2010[i].
Global
financial crisis and Chinese package, alerted the US administration. Although
studies in US in late 90’s had predicted that Far East will be economic hub in
21st century and studies at research institutes like Rand were predicting in
rise of China ,US busy in War on Terrorism, ignored it.
In 2013
President XI Jinping became president of People republic of China. He came with
ambitious plan of reforming and modernizing PLA forces and deployment out side
China for protection of Chinese interests across the world. Military reforms of
2015 played key role in PLA modernization. President Xi is, also the architect
of new silk route plan, popularly known as Belt and road initiative (BRI) or
OBOR (belt and road initiative).
People Republic
of China under the leader ship of president XI Jinping has become a biggest
competitor for US. Academics reckon that US has entrapped itself in Thucydides
trap with China. since 2018 world has witnessed escalating trade and political
tensions culminating in accusations and counter accusations between US and
China along with trade war and sanctions on Chinese technology companies.
Since Biden’s
came in to power, political and business investors have paid close attention to
the direction of the new White House administration’s policy towards China.
Although bilateral trade between China and US exceeds $500 Billion[ii] and in
past 2 years it has been observed that US expects sort of bailout package from
China[iii]. Al one side where US need China for trade and economy but on the
other hand its continuously provoking PRC. 2021 Alaska summit and last years
visit of Senator Nancy Pelosy are big examples. US is also afraid of BRI and
that’s why in G 7 summit last year it presented the idea of B4W[iv] i.e.
Building Back Better World , interestingly in same same G7 meeting Italy was also present which has
also joined BRI[v].
At present US is
equipping Taiwan and India and also creating partnerships and alliances like 5
eye intelligence network (including US, UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada)
Quadrilateral security dialogue or Quad( Including Japan, Australia, India and
US) ,AUKUS (Australia, UK and US). US advocates that rise of China is threat to
rule based world order.
Rise of China
and return of Bipolarity has brought many states options which they never had
during era of unipolarity. Many states who were in US camp and wanted to leave
or become neutral but could not, due to security or commercial interests and
were bound to follow US are now trying to balance relations with US by
benefitting from bipolar situation emerging in the world. One big example is
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
SAUDI US
RELATIONS
On 14 February,
1945, while US President Franklin D Roosevelt returning from the Yalta
Conference, when a meeting was arranged between him and king Abdul Aziz of
Saudi Arabia. The meeting took place on USS Quincy in the Suez Canal[vi], and
as a result Quincy Pact was signed between the two leaders. The most important
part of the pact was that the US would provide unconditional defensive shield
to the ruling Saud family in return for Saudi Arabia's assurance of energy
supplies to the US for a period of 60 years.
This pact was
renewed in 2005 during presidency of George W Bush in 2005 for another 60
years[vii].
Through out the
history Saudi Arab and US enjoyed close relations. After 911, according to
Michel Moors documentary Fahrenheit 911 Saudis were flown out of US under the protection of Bush
administration to protect them from any
legal or social backlash. Although Saudis were accused of sponsoring and
supporting extremism but US Saudi relations remained privileged .
Throughout this
long period, things were going well and relations between the two countries
were good until Mohammed Bin Salman or MBS became Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia
in 2017, and then Joe Biden entered the White House as President of the US in
January 2021 and completely ignored the de facto Saudi leader. During his
election campaign, Biden promised to punish prince Muhammad Bin Salman, who was
accused by the CIA of being involved directly in the 2018 for murder of
Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in
Istanbul[viii].
After coming in
to power Joe Biden intentionally chose not to contact the MBS and insisted on
speaking to King Salman on condition that his son will not join the
discussion[ix]. Biden also removed the Houthis in Yemen from the list of
terrorist groups[x], which angered prince Muhammad bin Salman, who responded by
getting closer to Russia and China. The Saudi leader in response to Biden
behaviour refused to increase oil production when asked by the US to do so, and
act as an alternative supplier to Russian oil and gas. Muhammad bin Salman
refused to take a call from Biden arranged by the White House to show his
contempt and dislike for US president Biden[xi].
According to
the Wall Street Journal, Bin Salman shouted at US NSA Jake Sullivan during a
meeting when Khashoggi's name was mentioned[xii]. The prince pointed out that
he doesn’t want to confer the issue again, and said that the US could forget
its request to double oil production.
The MBS
position pushed Biden to visit the region, and led him to back down from his
position towards MBS and his vow to make the KSA a "pariah" state.
Biden's July
2022 visit to KSA was a failure. MBS was seemingly cold during Biden's visit,
leaving the US president disappointed. He was surprised by Saudi Arabia
agreeing with Russia within OPEC+ on a significant reduction in oil production
quotas rather than an increase in order to control prices. It was clear that
Saudi decision was timed to coincide with the US midterm Congressional
elections i. It was a personal blow directed at Biden by the MBS.
Another challenge for Biden was the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Riyadh at the invitation of the Saudi crown prince. The Chinese president's reception was much more lavish than welcome given to Biden. The handshake between MBS and Xi lasted at least ten seconds, as observers were quick to point out. Biden had had to make do with a quick fist bump.
The strategic partnership agreement signed by Saudi Arabia and China angered the US. The White House said that Xi's visit to Riyadh was part of China's attempts to extend its influence around the world.
PRESIDENT XI JINPING VISIT TO KSA
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on 7th December 2022 for 3-day state visit. It was his first visit to KSA after his reelection by CCP and second after he assumed power in 2013. Saudi Arab is key energy ally of China, which is, at present, second biggest oil supplier to China after Russia
President XI was noticeably given a very warm welcome when he landed in KSA. Treatment given to Chinese president was very different to the treatment given to U.S. President Joe Biden only 5 months back. XI’s plane was escorted by Saudi Air force when it entered Saudi Air space and jets gave yellow and green contrails when he landed in Riyadh[xiii] . In contrast, U.S. president Biden was noticeably given cold shoulder upon his arrival in July 2022 and only a cold fist bump by prince Muhammad bin Salman was all he got from Saudi leadership[xiv].
On the day of XI’s arrival China and Saudi Arab signed 34 investment agreements. According to Saudi Press agency, these agreements covered “several sectors in the fields of information technology, cloud services, green energy, green hydrogen, photovoltaic energy, transportation, logistics, medical industries, housing and construction factories[xv].
On his Second day, President XI and Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz signed comprehensive strategic partnership agreement after the signature ceremony Prince Muhammad bin Salman hosted a lavish reception in honor of visiting president.[xvi]
Around 40 agreements were signed between China and Saudi Arabia During President XI’ 3-day visit[xvii].Saudi Aramco and China’s Shandong Energy Group signed a MoU to explore opportunities to collaborate on oil refining and petrochemical opportunities in the China. The agreement also stated that both countries will work together on renewable energy, hydrogen energy and carbon capture[xviii].
China and KSA signed another agreement on “strategic partnership on the digital economy”. The deal relates to digital economy, communications and information technology, and promoting research and innovation in the field of emerging technologies, improving aspects of communications infrastructure, and enabling the growth of digital entrepreneurship through emerging business models such as financial technology and e-commerce. This agreement will enable cooperation between two countries in field of artificial intelligence, advanced computing and quantum information technology, in addition to robots and smart equipment, and work to develop their technologies and applications for industrial and commercial purposes.[xix].
On December 9th, President Xi Jinping attended first China-GCC meeting in Riyadh. 16 leaders from GCC were present in the meeting, including Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifah of Bahrain, Crown Prince Sheikh Meshaal Jaber Al Ahmad Al Sabah of Kuwait, Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Fahd bin Mahmoud Al Said of Oman, the Ruler of Fujairah Sheikh Hamad bin Mohammad Al Sharqi of the UAE, and GCC Secretary General Nayef Falah Al Hajraf. It was decided at the Summit to establish and strengthen a China-GCC strategic partnership[xx].
President XI visit to KSA was a big success and win-win for both KSA GCC and China. XI secured oil security and important contracts from GCC and GCC countries successfully secured a reliable partner to balance US.
GAME THEORY AND XI SAUDI RELATIONS
Game theory is an important theory in International relations, which allow us to understand decision making process. Game theory is also known as interactive decision theory. It studies the behavior of decision makers in situations of strategic interrelationship. Its initiators are John Von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern who published their book The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior in 1944.
The significance of the theory for international relations is undisputed; there is a saying which state that states interact by trying to predict other states’ reactions to their decisions.
Game-theory applications to IR take the form of models, that is, the simplification and stylization of states’ interactions. The are three levels of game theory. These levels are extensive, strategic, and coalitional forms. In an extensive-form model, the analysis is in terms of states presented as players, actions available to players, classifications of players’ actions, players’ information conditions and preferences, and, finally, outcomes of interactions.
In a game at the strategic level, there are nothing but players, players’ strategies and choices over outcomes. The coalitional form is the most intangible level of analysis: coalitions of players and the values of these coalitions.
The majority of IR game models are pitched at the first two levels, as the last level of analysis assumes that cooperation between players is binding. Yet if a state cooperates, it must do so only because of self-interest; not because of a higher authority above states enforcing cooperative agreements. At least, there is no supreme authority over sovereign and co-existing states.
There are two basic models in game theory
· Prisoners’ dilemma
· Game of Chicken
A prisoner's dilemma defines a situation where, according to game theory, two players acting selfishly will eventually result in a suboptimal choice for both. The prisoner's dilemma also shows us that mere cooperation is not always in one's best interests.
Saudi US relations in 2023 represents prisoner’s dilemma. Both US and KSA need each other but are suspicious of each other .
Biden who is from democratic party is advocating liberal values and in his pursuit has antagonized defacto leader of Saudi Arabia, Prince Muhammad bin Salman. This has created suspicions in mind of Saudi’s. MBS is taking decisions to balance dependency on US by choosing what is not favorable for US.
Muhammad bin Salman who is friend of Jarred Kushner , son in Law of former US president Donald Trump. MBS gave royal well come to US president Donald Trump in 2017. In words of Ben Hubbard of New Yourk times
When President Donald J. Trump chose Saudi Arabia in 2017 for the first overseas trip of his presidency, the Saudis were so overjoyed that they turned his visit into a pro-American extravaganza[xxi].
US president Joe Bidens visit in July 2022, was an occasion in which MBS communicated his displeasure to Biden and his distrust on him. Whereas, for Muhammed bin Salman, the timing of president XI Jinping’s visit could not have been better.
As MBS seeks to implement his ambitious Vision 2030 program for the country, president XI’s visit allowed him to show the world, especially to US, his foreign policy independence, consolidate the leading role of the Kingdom in the Arab and Muslim world, and prove his leadership to his people prior to his accession to the throne.
At the same time, China has shown over the past decade that its interest in the Middle East and North Africa goes far beyond energy security. It has progressively expanded its cooperation with Arab states while immensely investing in infrastructure and technologies of the future: trade, investment, finances, ports, industry and logistics centers, green energy, communications infrastructure, smart cities, public health, space, weapons, cars, culture, and education. Xi’s Saudi visit aimed to deepen the cooperation between Chinese development strategy and regional states’ vision plans, thus connecting their fates.
Beijing has wisely exploited every exposed nerve in US-partner relations in order to undermine US hegemony, which dictates a unipolar global order and serves the interests of Washington . Beijing, like Russia, stresses the apparent shared fate of the Arab states and China as historic victims of Western colonialism , making them natural associates in creating a multipolar world without Western hegemony.
The present visit was therefore also envisioned to deepen the cracks in trust between the US and Arab states, weaken the US network of alliances, and strengthen the "strategic autonomy" of the Arab states.
In week of the XI Jinping visit, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published a detailed report on Sino-Arab cooperation in the “new era.[xxii]” It claimed that unlike “other countries,” China supports the strategic independence of states in the region, does not interfere in their domestic affairs, does not link Islam to terror, and only seeks mutual benefit. “Arab states are tired of arrogant Western condescension,” wrote a senior Chinese Middle East researcher in a party news outlet, and similar sentiments were echoed by Arab news outlets across the region.
On other hand despite their grievances, Arab states generally see their relations with US as vital, and understand that China cannot and does not want to replace the US in this role in the short term. Both KSA and GCC countries are worried about the Bidens lack of attention to their wishes for their security and his contempt for leaders like MBS , hostile tones in US Congress, and differences on issues such as freedom and human rights have further antagonized them. They believe that even if the deployment of US military forces in the Middle East remains unchanged, these Arab states are growing skeptical of the US willingness to use them when they need them.
KSA and GCC countries perceive Washington is attempting to limit their opportunities for development by forcing them to choose sides in a fight that is not theirs. The greater the rivalry between the powers in every possible arena, the more the Middle East will be seen as a zero-sum game, with any move closer to Beijing seen as a loss for Washington, and vice versa.
The primary goals of Biden’s visit past July was to increase oil production in the short term, in order to lower market prices and ease the situation of American and European consumers, as well as to signal to Arab states that the US is not abandoning them over the long term. “We will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran,” he declared. “The United States isn’t going anywhere.” However, already then it was clear that the Arab leaders who convened in Saudi Arabia were not convinced. While the US administration believed that it had reached an understanding with the energy giants in light of the global crisis, OPEC, under the control of KSA, sent him home empty-handed. Furthermore, the organization enraged Capitol Hill by deciding to further reduce oil production by two million barrels a day about a month before the midterm elections in the US.
The royal visit by the Chinese leader aligns with the Saudi response to the White House, with both saying: the rules of the game have changed; don’t set conditions for us and don’t make us choose.
Even if the Gulf states overestimate their own importance, there is no doubt that increasing Chinese involvement in light of the global energy crisis and the great power competition gives them more options. They will continue to use the diverse range of connections to further their national interests, manage risks, and seek to balance them all. in their minds, it is the US that must adjust its expectations to the new reality.
Biden administration is standing its ground and continues to claim that there is no true regional alternative to the US. In the security conference last November (18th to 20 Nov 22) in Bahrain, several senior US figures sought to sharpen the message that the US is the only power that can coordinate regional cooperation and create coalitions against Iran, and that “it would be a mistake for regional states to bet against it[xxiii].” They also warned that Chinese penetration of Gulf technology infrastructure would endanger the US-led Middle East Air Defense Alliance (MEAD), which protects against missiles and drones from Tehran and its proxies. They argued that the effectiveness of the US defense umbrella would decrease the further the cooperation went with China. States in the region hear the United States saying, "You're either with us or with them," despite its continued claim that it is "not asking any state to choose a side."
CONCLUSION
Xi’s visit demonstrates at the very least that Arab states in and GCC in particular are not without options. The country that has become the chief trading partner and investor in most Arab states signed MoU’s and agreements worth tens of billions of dollars in over thirty strategic sectors. In tech, for example, Biden’s visit to Riyadh included agreements on American-Saudi cooperation in 5G and 6G communications infrastructure. However, the package of deals that Xi signed this week included a memorandum of understanding with Chinese giant Huawei to establish high-speed cellular internet and computing facilities in the Kingdom. China is also involved in the Crown Prince’s flagship project, construction of Neom city, much to the Americans’ displeasure.
On security, Chinese defense conglomerates offer excellent weapon systems at competitive prices. For example, Chinese media outlets informed that Saudi Arabia spent $4 billion on weapons at a security expo in Zhuhai last month. They reported earlier this year that China would establish a factory in the Kingdom to produce advanced UAVs, and that it hopes to sell it its new stealth plane after reaching an agreement to supply training/attack light aircraft to the UAE. There has been an increase in reports of Chinese-GCC cooperation in the manufacturing of missiles and laser air defense weapons, cyber, intelligence, and counterterrorism, and even joint activity in the nuclear fuel cycle over the last decade.
Arab states know that the United States remains crucial in the military-security field. At the same time, they hope that their relationship with China will help their countries' development and stability while also giving them leverage with the US. Far beyond the energy sector or as a byproduct of their relations with the US, China's relations with Middle East countries are becoming increasingly strategic and important in their own right. There is no doubt that the United States is an important part of the story, and senior American officials will continue to insist that their country "isn't going anywhere." Xi's visit demonstrates that the same is true for China.
Prisoner dilemma model rightly predicts that GCC and Saudi Arabia is showing discontent with US administration . They Don’t trust Biden regime and things will normalize when there will be regime change in Washington.
Prisoner Dilemma model also predicts that t KSA and GCC will try to balance between China and US ,so they can enjoy benefits from both sides.
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[i]
https://www.oecd.org/gov/budgeting/Public%20Governance%20Issues%20in%20China.pdf
[ii]
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1277819.shtml
[iv]https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-counter-chinas-belt-road-with-infrastructure-project-senior-us-official-2021-06-12/
[v]https://blogs.loc.gov/law/2020/05/italy-a-new-silk-road-between-italy-and-china-the-belt-and-road-initiative/#:~:text=Over%20a%20year%20ago%2C%20on,One%20Road%E2%80%9D%20(OBOR).
[vi] Bruce
Riddle , 75 years after a historic meeting on the USS Quincy, US-Saudi
relations are in need of a true re-think , Feb 10 ,2020
,Https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/02/10/75-years-after-a-historic-meeting-on-the-uss-quincy-us-saudi-relations-are-in-need-of-a-true-re-think/
[vii]https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20221213-will-bin-salman-cancel-his-grandfathers-agreement-with-roosevelt/
[viii]https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/cia-concludes-saudi-crown-prince-ordered-jamal-khashoggis-assassination/2018/11/16/98c89fe6-e9b2-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html
[ix]https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20221213-will-bin-salman-cancel-his-grandfathers-agreement-with-roosevelt/
[x][x]https://www.state.gov/revocation-of-the-terrorist-designations-of-ansarallah/#:~:text=Effective%20February%2016%2C%20I%20am,pursuant%20to%20Executive%20Order%20(E.O.)
[xi]
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/16/middleeast/biden-mbs-khashoggi-abu-akleh-intl/index.html
[xii]https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-u-s-saudi-relations-reached-the-breaking-point-11650383578?mod=hp_listc_pos4
[xiii]Yoel
Guzansky and Tuvia Gering, Xi of Arabia: Enjoying the Favor of the King, INSS
Insight No. 1671, December 18, 2022
[xiv] Op Cit,
Yoel Guzansky and Tuvia Gering
[xv]
https://www.spa.gov.sa/viewfullstory.php?lang=en&newsid=2407555#2407555
[xvi]
https://www.chin
a-briefing.com/news/saudi-arabia-china-relations-xi-jinping-visit/
[xvii] Adam
Lucente , Saudi Arabia, China sign over 40 deals during Xi's visit, Al Monitor,
Dated 9 Dec 2022
[xviii]https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2022/aramco-and-shandong-energy-collaborate-on-downstream-projects-in-china
[xix]
https://www.spa.gov.sa/viewfullstory.php?lang=en&newsid=2407961#2407961
[xx]
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202212/t20221210_10988406.html
[xxi]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-biden-trump.html
[xxii]
http://english.scio.gov.cn/pressroom/2022-12/05/content_78551225.htm
[xxiii]https://www.iiss.org/events/manama-dialogue/manama-dialogue-2022#:~:text=The%20IISS%20Manama%20Dialogue%20is,on%2018%E2%80%9320%20November%202022.