India is finding itself in a very tight spot. The decision of 5th August 2019 is taking its toll. The removal of special status of Jammu and Kashmir and its bifurcation has provoked not only Pakistan but also the great dragon in the North.
Looking back at Chinese policy we can see china has always been kind with India. It’s encouraged trade and allowed India to fill the huge gap of its trade deficit with India. New Delhi’s trade deficit with China fell to $48.66 billion in 2019-20 due to decline in exports. Indian Exports to China in the last financial year stood at $16.6 billion, while imports increased to $65.26 billion.
Sikkim which was historically Chinese territory, China allowed India to make trading post there to encourage peace and mutual trade. Similarly Beijing encouraged dialogue to resolve border issues with India. China even wished India to join its BRI project which India resisted, forcing China to abandon this idea. Today all the states in South Asia are part of BRI except India and Bhutan.
Indian decision of August 5 2019 changed Chinese policy. Indian home minister Amit shah in Indian parliament claimed that Indian Kashmir Includes Aksai Chin and India will reclaim its territory and bring it back to Union. This statement offended Chinese and things started to deteriorate.
Majority of Ladakh area was historically considered Part of Tibat. Clashes started between India and China in April May 2020. Both sides used Sticks and non-lethal weapons to push each other. According to Indians, PLA occupied Indian Territory in 7 sectors in Ladakh including Galwan Valley, Hot Springs, Pangong Lake and Naku La, Depsang Plains in the sub-sector north and Demchok in the south.
China claim that boundary is not demarcated. Change of status in Kashmir has made all understandings Null and void. China is claiming that Line of Actual Control (LAC) is a loose demarcation line that separates Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled territory in the Sino-India. China owns the territory which was mentioned by Zhou Enlai in a 1959 in his letter to Jawaharlal Nehru.
Indian Army discovered Chinese advances in April. Both sides tried to resolve the dispute at diplomatic as well as military commander’s level. On Night between 15/16 an Indian patrol headed by CO 16 Bihar regiment approached Chinese position. CO was accompanied by a Lt Colonel and few majors along with dozens of Jco’s and OR’s to check weather PLA has vacated its position or not. Argument between PLA troops and Indians started, resulting in clash in which more than 20 Indian soldiers are killed along with their Commanding officer. PLA also captured dozens of Indian officers and OR’s.
Indian media reported it and Indian army twice changed its statement about the incident. Opposition parties called for all party conference in which PM Modi denied any incursion by PLA.
After Galwan incident couple of meeting took place between China and India and PLA withdrew 1 to two KM in Galwan. BJP’s social media declared victory but unfortunately for India PLA has refused to withdraw from Depsang , Pangong TSu and other areas. In 15 July meeting between PLA and Indian commander, Chinese refuse to withdraw and their stance was inflexible about these areas.
According to Indian narrative as published in The Print, Hindustan times etc. India was under impression that china will leave the areas and things will go back to pre-April status que. They agreed to withdraw and make vacated area and the area PLA Vacated as buffer zone. Indian leadership failed to read the ground reality.
Last week Indian defense minister Rajnath Singh visited Ladakh and in his talk with troops he was not confident that Sino Indian dispute in ladakh will resolve with dialogue. He ordered IAF to be on alert.
According to Hindustan times, In addition to 14 corps, India has deployed 2 to 3 divisions along with Mechanize and Armor brigades in Ladakh. There are reports India may deploy newly acquired Rafael’s.
India is in zero sum game. Chinese have 2 hundred thousand troops in Western theater command. These troops are well trained and acclimatized for high altitude war fare along with excellent border infrastructure to support any contingency. Indian troops which have been deployed need time to acclimatize and get use to this high altitude theater. India is also lacking infrastructure and its defensive positions are 60 to 80 KM behind the point of contact. At present both sides have amassed about one hundred thousand troops in Ladakh.
According to OSINT China has deployed at least 2 batteries of S-400 anti-missile and Air defense system. Its air bases are near LAC with state of the art fighters and bombers. In 40 Days snow fall will start making contact areas non accessible for Indians. Therefore India has very less time for action. It is not prepared Delhi don’t take action then it will lose territory and if it takes actions casualties and defeat will be unbelievable.
China has achieved unbelievable leverage in Electromagnetic spectrum and Missal system. If China and India go to war, PLA will not fight war according to Indian wishes. Mode of warfare is changing rapidly due to Revolution in military affairs. Cyber war, electronic and information warfare has changed the concept of modern war and Indian army which has network centric doctrine and mode of war will become sitting duck against Chinese electronic , cyber and informative capabilities . In addition to this PLA will not needing its troops to fight battle as recent conflicts in Syria and Libya confirmed that major role will be played by Drones. China manufacture and export drones whereas India is dependent of Israel and other countries.
IAF will be bogged down as china has way advance Jets and capabilities to limit and control Indian planes. Last year according to Pravin Sawhney, editor force magazine, PAF jammed Indian Su’s and MIGs which resulted in Indian failure to counter Pakistani counter strike on Feb 27th 2019. Now PLA is far more capable and since 2015 has a separate force for these operations.
Secondly India is no match for China when it comes to national power. China has for more forex reserves, Population, size, diplomacy, industrial and military capability. Any provocation to China will also destroy dream of Bharat Versh. India will be forced to free Kashmir and resolve its bordering states who are now Chinese allies due to BRI.India is at present being instigated by U.S. but in case of war with China, US will only help in Intelligence field and providing expensive weapons which will not be of any leverage. So far except US, none of its allies from Quad has come out open for India. At the end all members of this alliance have their economic interests tied with China and no one will like to cross limit and provoke China.
Summing up, India is in tight situation. It is no match for China in any domain. Modi’s fascism has brought India to this humiliating situation. Indian establishment must realize the situation and global dynamics.