India under BJP has shown lack of strategos or divine spark for which Indian diplomacy was always famous for. Today under Hindutva government New Delhi has isolated itself in the region and in pursuit of catching American eyes distanced itself from its close allies like Russia and Iran.
Indian love affair with U.S. and its expected role in Indo Pacific strategy is not seen with affection by Russians who are coordinating with Chinese on different issues and are close like allies.
India trying to maintain close relation with Russia and US is
not possible in present scenario. US has threatened sanctions on India over
S-400 purchase. Similarly trade conflict/ surge in tariffs is another snub to
India by Americans. On other side Russia is advising India to mend relations
with China.
Iran an important ally of India is slipping away. Due to U.S
sanctions on Iran, New Delhi stopped buying oil from Iran and started looking
towards GCC countries, all competitors of Iran. It also slashed Chahbahar
budget from Rs 150 crore to Rs 45 crore. It shocked Iran and same Iran which
was showing unfriendly gestures to Pakistan during last year Indo-Pak crisis
started coming near to Pakistan.
Tehran is also member of BRI project of China. Recently
Russian, Chinese Navies participated in naval drills with Iranian navy. BRI is
bringing Iran and china closer to each other which is perceived as threat by
India and its new ally U.S.
Modi Amit Shah Plan for NRC
and protests against CAA are being criticized by India’s close friends like
Prime Minister Hasina Wajid of Bangladesh and former Afghan president Hamid
Karzai.
Revealing Indian govts intention ,Dilip Ghosh, president BJP East Bengal
said in a rally on 20th Jan 2020 that “ [BJP]government is committed to
implementing proposed nationwide NRC, will send back 10 million Bangladeshi
Muslims living in West Bengal illegally”.
Noting pulse of BJP Anti-Muslim policy Bangladesh has joined BRI
project. It has purchased submarines from China and Chinese are also building a
submarine base for Bangladeshi Navy. Recently Bangladesh saw largest protests
in its history against Modi's visit to Dhaka. This visit was cancelled and
cancelation was attributed to Corona virus. Public sentiments are becoming anti india and if
Dilip Ghosh threat materializes Bangladeshi Govt will have to react.
Another India’s neighbor is
Nepal, it is a land locked country bordering both China and India. New Delhi
traditionally like to dictate Katmandu because of its dependency on Indian
routes for trade and supply. India blockaded Nepal in September 2015 resulting
in humanitarian and economic crisis in Kathmandu. Recently Nepal signed
agreement of constructing 70-km (42-mile) rail link with China, this will
connect Gyiron in Tibet with Nepal’s capital Kathmandu. Nepal is also
constructing 28-km (17 mile) road tunnel which will save more than half the
distance from Kathmandu to the Chinese border, saving on time and cost. These
links will give alternative to Nepal and allow Nepal to benefit from BRI.
Kingdom of Bhutan lies in
India’s North , it is also not happy with Indian conduct during Doklam crisis
of 2017. The disputed road which China was constructing was on Bhutanese
territory. India over reacted for its interests and in end without considering
Bhutan’s interests acted unilaterally, hence offending Bhutan. China and Bhutan
are trying to resolve border issues and developing positive relations making
India insecure, New Delhi fears Bhutan may join BRI making India more
vulnerable.
India’s biggest fear is People
Republic of China. Beijing is many times bigger and stronger in all the
elements of national power. India considers China as an equal that’s why Indian
FM Subrahmanyam Jaishankar talked about creating equilibrium with China.
Beijing has boundary disputes with India and in 1962 both fought a war and then
again came near to war during Sum Do Wrong chu or Twang crisis in 80’s.
China has effectively encircled India with his project of Belt
and road initiative. Beijing with its soft power and apparently benevolent
policy is winning countries after countries as its friend.
China is ‘Iron brother of Pakistan’ helping Pakistan in nearly
every important sector and also developing China Pakistan Economic Corridor
which will be game changer for Pakistan and region. China stands with Pakistan
on Kashmir dispute. Due to Sino-Pak close relations interpretability is developing
between Pakistan army, Navy and Air force with PLA, PLAN and PLAF.
China has recently signed BRI agreement with Myanmar similar to
CPEC. Beijing is expected to have Navel facility in Naypyitaw. Base in Burma
will facilitate PLAN in Bay of Bengal.
Indian navy is facing blunt
of PLAN increasing activity in Indian Ocean region (IOR). First time Brahmos
caring SU’s have been stationed in South India to counter Chinese navy.
Recently PLAN concluded exercises with South African and Iranian and Pakistan
navy.
Indian new ally, U.S. has nothing to offer regional countries
equaling to BRI of China. U.S. Indo Pacific strategy has narrowed down to Quad.
Quad is security dialogue between U.S., Japan, Australia and India.
Surprisingly Tokyo has joined Belt and Road initiative meaning Chinese soft
power has made its staunch rival Japan into its partner. To counter BRI according to few analysts U.S. has presented Blue Dot Strategy which he presented to Modi but US is late and BRI is already making its mark.
Internally BJP’s Hindutva agenda is destroying India’s secular
foundations. Low caste Hindus and other minorities are at unease because
impression is that after Muslims they will be targeted and prosecuted for
“Hinduisation” of India. Recent Delhi pogrom is recent example how Indian establishment helped Hindu Tva goons to kill and loot muslims in Indian capital.
Modi Govt has changed Kashmir into world’s largest prison.
Maoists or Naxilites are getting power and now have reached South India. Sikhs
are demanding for Khalistan. Economy is on decline. Poverty increasing
but BJP is only interested in Hinduizing minorities or demonizing Pakistan to
gather support. Only allies which BJP Govt will find today in India are Hindu
extremists or Indian armed forces.
BJP has effectively isolated
India in the region. Today India is running out of allies in South Asia. U.S.
president Donald Trump is giving favor to India by offering mediation and
during his recent trip to India openly praised Pakistan and offered again to mediate
which should be eye opener for Indians how their last hope thinks about it.
Time is passing very fast and PM Khan has warned that
situation in IOK can cause Indo-Pak war. FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi has rightly
said ‘“The world must have its interests for considering India its commercial
ally but it should not be silent on the prevailing situation in India giving
due importance to people’s values,”
NOTE: This article was published in Daily Nation on Feb,8th 2020. I have updated the column