Yesterday there
was report that Syrian forces ambushed Turkish convoy in Hama and Syrian
forces shelling
on Turkish Observation post in Idlib resulting in death of a Turkish
soldier. There are reports Turkey moving its special forces to Syrian border
and Turkish jets were on aggressive patrolling. Developing situation in Syria
is an opportunity for US to bring back
turkey under his wings provided Russia don’t stop Assad from provoking Turkey. If
Turkey Syria go to war, Turkey can ask NATO to come for help according to
Article 5 of NATO constitution.
Russia and Turkey made deal in September 2018 for establishment
of de-militarized zone
in Syria's Idlib Syrian forces are continually violating this agreement and
Russia is siding with Syrian army. Turkish army man 12 observation posts in
Idlib. It’s not first time Syrians have attacked Turkish troops. Last month
there were at least 2 reported Syrian attacks on Turkish observation posts.
Although Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem has told
journalists on June 18th that Syria
don’t want war with Turkey but on the ground, situation is different.
Neither Russia nor Syria are implementing what was agreed last year between Turkey and
Russia.
On Thrusday 27th June Turkish defense ministry summoned Russian
military attaché and told him that attack on Turkish observation post will be
punished in strongest way
Turkey is in challenging situation. According to few estimates
4 million Syrian refugees are hosted by Turks. Most refugees are fearful of returning back to
their country for fear of retribution by regime loyalists. There
are reports that those who dared to return were tortured and prosecuted by
Assad regime. Assad regime is not
allowing people to return without clearance from Al Mukhbaraat, Syrian intelligence
agency.
Turkish president Recep
Tayyip Erdogan pledged in January this year that Turkey will launch
military offensive in Northern Syria to create safe zone so that 4 million Syrian
refugees can return.
Due to its history and a strategic culture Turkey is finding
itself in dilemma. Turkey want to preserve its independence at every cost. That
is why in effort to secure its interests it’s finding itself at odd with two
super Powers in conflict with each other.
US
is supporting and using Kurds since 2000 to implement its version of
Political and security order in Middle East. Turkey has been fighting Kurdish militancy
for decades. Like every independent state Turkey wants to ensure its security
which is, being threatened by allies of its old ally.
Turkey’s economy has been thumped by U.S. sanctions on Iran
that are driving up energy prices in Turkey. Turkey is also vary of US support
to Gullen group which is operating from US and Turkey
suspect Gullen behind failed military coup of 2017 . US
has refused to extradite Fatha ullah Gullen to Turkey.
In past US and NATO deployed Patriot batteries to protect
Turkey but last year the batteries were withdrawn on pretext that threat from
Syria was over. Following
protracted efforts to purchase an air defence system from the US with no
success, Ankara decided in 2017 to purchase the Russian S-400.”
In response to Turkish purchase of S-400 US has suspended F
35 training to Turkish pilots and also threatened it with sanctions. US
legislators are also bringing resolution in US senate to bring sanctions on
Turkey of pretext of Cyprus gas exploration.
Similarly Turkey and Russia, both Power centers in Past have
been at odd against each other since 12th century. In cold war
Turkey was active member of anti-Soviet union NATO alliance.
From the beginning of Syrian civil war in 2011 both
countries were siding with opposite forces. In 2015 Turkish
fighter jets shot down Russian Fighter jet after it allegedly violated
Turkish aerospace. According to few analysts it was response of Syrian regimes Air
force shooting down of Turkish fighter jets in 2012 (supported by Russia).
Feelings remained high after the shooting of Russian jet. In December 2016
Russian ambassador in Turkey Andrei Karlov was shot dead by a police man who
said he was angry over Russian
involvement in Syria.
The process of damage control between the two countries started
in June 2016 with Recep Erdoğan expressing regret to Putin for the downing of
the Russian fighter jet. Putin and Erdogan talked with each other on phone on
29 June and dust began to settle.
At present, although Turkey has purchased Russian S-400
Systems against wishes of its old ally US but Russian and Turkish interests
collide on Syrian issue where so far Russia has shown insensitivity to justified
Turkish interests.
Turkey's main aim of Turkish military presence on Syrian soil is
to avoid a new wave of refugees coming to Turkey,
it also want to stop extremists from entering Turkey. And most of all, Ankara
wants to keep the region’s Kurds at bay.
The prevailing crisis between Turkey and Russia, especially
after Syrian Ambush on Turkish convoy and repeated incidents of artillery
bombardment on Turkish posts may take Russia and Turkey away from each other. If
crisis develop to war between Syria and Turkey, Russia will be the loser as it
has al ready offended Iran in Syria and have no ally except Syria in the vicinity.
“According to Asia Times, Russia intends to stay on in Syria as the sole foreign military power along the Mediterranean coast, given its air base in Khmeimim and its invitation from Damascus to modernize a Soviet-age naval base in Tartus. But the Iranians also have an eye on the coast. They have had a partial lease of the Latakia port since October 2018. Although Iran is officially permitted to use the harbor only for economic purposes, this new reality concerns Moscow, which foresees risks to its own forces, who may be subject to incidental attacks on Iranian proxies by Israel or even the United States”(Al-Monitor)
Iranians are under pressure in Syria due to policy of
limiting Iranian presence in Syria. Israeli aerial attacks on Iranian positions
would have been impossible without Russian nod. Iran has realized that it is at
odd with Russia on Syrian policy.
If Turkey goes to war with Syria, US will be in win-win
condition. It may be able to win back Turkey by supporting it against Russian
backed Syria. NATO can evoke Article 5 of its constitution for helping Turkey
which will be challenged by Russia or Turkey will be weakened in war because it
will be Turkish war against Syria and its ally Russia and it will be forced to
abide by NATO rules in order to survive against Russia. In both cases US will benefit
.
A big war is on horizon. In my view this war will not start from
US attacking Iran. There are chances
that this will originate from Syria and may be things will be very different
from what analysts are projecting from past few decade.