Donald trump in his state of the union address has outlined
his plans for Iran. Next Target of US aggression is Iran. The decision of
withdrawal from Syria and Peace talks with Taliban in Afghanistan are aimed to
totally concentrate its force on Iran and limiting the battle front for economy
of force.
In his speech he said
“When I took office, ISIS controlled more than 20,000 square miles in
Iraq and Syria. Today, we have liberated virtually all of that territory from
the grip of these bloodthirsty killers.
Now, as we work with our allies to destroy the remnants of ISIS, it is
time to give our brave warriors in Syria a warm welcome home.
I have also accelerated our negotiations to reach a political
settlement in Afghanistan. Our troops have fought with unmatched valor -- and
thanks to their bravery, we are now able to pursue a political solution to this
long and bloody conflict.
In Afghanistan, my Administration is holding constructive talks with a
number of Afghan groups, including the Taliban. As we make progress in these
negotiations, we will be able to reduce our troop presence and focus on
counter-terrorism. We do not know whether we will achieve an agreement -- but
we do know that after two decades of war, the hour has come to at least try for
peace”.
In his speech he clearly said that “As we make progress in these negotiations,
we will be able to reduce our troop presence and focus on counter-terrorism”
Read again
As we make progress in these negotiations, we will be able to reduce
our troop presence and focus on counter-terrorism
Now Question rises who is terrorist whom he wants to
counter. Again in his speech he said in Clear words
My
Administration has acted decisively to confront the world's leading state
sponsor of terror: the radical regime in Iran.
To
ensure this corrupt dictatorship never acquires nuclear weapons, I withdrew the
United States from the disastrous Iran nuclear deal. And last fall, we put in
place the toughest sanctions ever imposed on a country.
We
will not avert our eyes from a regime that chants death to America and
threatens genocide against the Jewish people. We must never ignore the vile
poison of anti-Semitism, or those who spread its venomous creed. With one
voice, we must confront this hatred anywhere and everywhere it occurs.
In his speech he has given his plan
for new war and he asked “We must be united at home to defeat our
adversaries abroad”.
Now look at the ground situation in
Middle East
Whole Middle East is in mess. US has
successfully changed political order of the region. The old oder which came out
after First World has given place to new one. Now there are 3
power centres, Sunni Arabs, Shia and Kurds. All three with lots of grievances
against each other.
Arabs are successfully managed by Rich
Gulf States, Kurds are allies and US and Israeli investment on Kurds dating
back from Saddam’s day is giving dividends. Only Problem is Iran and its
allies. Iran is playing leadership role in Shia belt and just like Saudis
influence Sunnis, Iran influences Shias.
Iran’s main allies in Middle East were
Hizbollah in Lebanon , Syria and Shia Militias in Iraq. Hamas a Sunni political
force in Palestinian territory was also under Iran’s influence.
US and its allies with Iranian consent
used Shia Militia against Iraqi resistance although clerics like Ayatollah
Sistani of Iraq opposed Shias to fight Sunni Iraqis and tried to stop sectarian
civil war but in vain.
In 2011, 8 years after Iraq invasion
US and its Arab allies moved to Syria. Indigenous protests against Bathist Arab
regime were financed and supported and struggle for rights in Syria was
converted into armed resistance.
The real benefit of Syrian civil war
is that Line of Communication and supply to Hizbollah in Lebanon is now under
control . Syria is in no position to help Hizbollah and Hezbollah man power is
stretched and in different theaters.
Hizbollahs problems have have impacted
Hamas and Palestine is in sorry state. Similarly alliance with kurds have
enabled US and its allies for any future reshaping of Middle East.
Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran all have
Kurdish population wanting independent Kurdish State. Kurdish land is rich with
oil and gas reserves. Secondly Kurdish Areas are important in Pipelines
politics.
Israel is only country which is
benefitting from present situation. In new Middle East, Israel is the balancer
and the other three groups are fighting or distrustful of each other. The last
irritant left in the region is Iran for completion of new political order in
Middle East.
Present developments are aimed at
removing this irritant but there are Russia and China who can spoil this game.
If US and allies succeed in neutralizing Iran, which in other words mean if
Russia and China fails to protect Iran then the new world order will again be
in US hands and dream of Pax Americana will again become reality.
To be contine...